Volume 5, Issue 2 (2015)                   ORMR 2015, 5(2): 1-20 | Back to browse issues page

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Ighani Ardebili E, Riahi Kashani M M, Aghamohammadi A. Forecasting Price Using an Expert System Based on Neural Networks. ORMR. 2015; 5 (2) :1-20
URL: http://ormr.modares.ac.ir/article-28-8596-en.html
Abstract:   (7513 Views)
Lack of a structured anticipation about different aspects of high usage product of the national petrochemical company, has forced this company to buy published anticipated prices from foreign countries. Prevent the outflow of foreign exchange and tolerance of political factors, such as sanctions in this field, require a prediction of prices in Iran. Due to chain-like nature of petrochemical products and the absence of precise knowledge of effects of many factors on price, researchers are forced to solve problems with high complexity and high grade of equations. Selecting number and type of input variables of neural network has a significant impact on the performance of a system. Therefore fundamental analysis relying on theory of supply / demand and macroeconomic perspective alongside of Delphi statistical method were used to select the most influential factor. This factor is the price of petroleum products. At First, the overall topology of the neural network is designed using controlled variables, then, considering the independent variables, the optimal network has selected. After creating the user interface, communication of system with optimal neural network was established. To evaluate the actual price of considered product in reference year, it compared with the prices predicted by the proposed system and purchased prices predicted from CMAI; acquired results proved acceptable effectiveness of the proposed system with less than 3% error in predicting of considered chain. Using this system can result in petrochemical companies’ independency from buying forecasted prices from foreign companies and prevent exiting currency from country.
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Received: 2013/11/11 | Accepted: 2015/03/4 | Published: 2015/07/23

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